"The outlook has darkened significantly since April," says International Monetary Fund's Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. "The world's largest economies are stalling, with important consequences for the global outlook." Writing in a July blog post, Gourinchas' bleak forecast portrays a world economy "still reeling" from the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with spiralling inflation in the US and Europe leading to a further tightening of financial conditions. The result, he warns, is the very real possibility of a recession—a sustained period of global economic slowdown—in the immediate future.

It's easy to imagine dance music existing in a vacuum, far removed from any real world concerns, but like countless other industries, the harsh economic climate risks having catastrophic effects on the global club scene. In the midst of these challenging conditions, Resident Advisor reached out to experts from across the music industry for insight and advice on how to adapt.

Clubs and promoters: Assess your budget

Among economic experts, there's a theory that bars and nightclubs are largely immune to the adverse effects of a recession. This is because "vice stocks" such as alcohol and tobacco are considered recession-proof—people imbibe in both good times and bad—and nightlife provides a much-needed dose of escapism during periods of crisis. But the reality is that clubs and venues are suffering just as much, if not more, than more traditional businesses.

The general consensus is the fallout will be even more severe and far-reaching than the Great Recession of 2007. In the UK, a perfect storm of lockdown debt, ever-rapacious urban development and the spectre of the worst cost-of-living crisis since the 1950s has left the club scene in a particularly precarious position. 22 percent of venues have already closed since 2019, including East London's Space 289, which was forced to shutter in July after its rent more than doubled.

"I'm worried it's going to be apocalyptic in six to twelve months," warns Matt Barnwell, Director of hospitality consultancy firm IH Solutions. "Clubs have already tapped their borrowing resources for Covid, most will be paying back money from bounce-back loans and now another economic crisis is unfolding. The normal thing for businesses to do in these situations is borrow more money, but there's no more money to borrow. And even if there was, they'd fail the credit checks because they've been making losses for the best part of two years thanks to lockdown."

Barnwell stresses that having any chance of staying afloat during these arduous times begins with rigorous budgeting. "I'm sure lots of businesses have been getting by without doing it up until now, but this is so unprecedented that even if you've never done a budget in your life then start now. Track against it—not just every month, but every week. Understanding where you are is absolutely key."

Clara Cullen, Venue Support Manager at the Music Venue Trust, urges struggling venues to request payment plans from suppliers, stressing that good communication will help "resolve disputes without having to go through a legal process." Cullen also suggests using wholesalers, which can reduce overheads and lead to vital savings, and maintain an open line of communication with local councils so as to keep on top of any suitable funding programmes.

Her practical advice for promoters feeling the squeeze includes monitoring promotional and PR spend ("Is what you're doing working? Is it selling tickets?"), altering operational plans based on ongoing ticket sale updates and undergoing meticulous research before agreeing to terms with a booking agent. "If the artist played in your town before, then where did they play? How much were advance tickets? How many people attended? This isn't about screwing down artist fees, it's about finding harmony between an agent's work for their client and viable event costs."

Conor Lynch, a former promoter for Dublin club brand Bodytonic and booker for venues The Bernard Shaw and Twisted Pepper, adds that hiring out the space during daytime hours can be an additional revenue source ("The Twisted Pepper had, at different stages, a book shop, barbershop, record shop and music studio operating out of it"). He adds that it's critical to cultivate a sense of community. "As a promoter, you're better off making what you do about the party and what makes it unique rather than Ben Klock, Jeff Mills or whatever big name you've booked," he insists. "Strong club scenes are about people and communities, not celebrities."

DJs and producers: Know your rights

The idea that the average electronic artist is living a life of luxury is a myth that has been firmly dispelled in recent years. Top tier international jetsetters may continue to command hefty fees, but the reality for the vast majority of DJs is starkly different.

"Artists face a number of challenges throughout their career, with unsteady income and physical and mental health concerns common issues to navigate," says Bill Freeman, Director of Musicians' Services at Help Musicians, a charity dedicated to supporting music creators in times of crisis. Freeman outlines a number of measures for those struggling to adapt to worsening economic conditions, such as reviewing benefits they may be entitled to, searching for potential funding programmes and knowing their rights around payment.

"Musicians should be paid for their work both in a live environment and for anything recorded," he continues, insisting that this is something that ought to be written into contracts. "Also, don't be afraid of merchandise. Providing your fans with the opportunity to support you outside of performances can be a fruitful extra revenue source."

The next step for artists who are disillusioned with exploitative industry practices and concerned for their future is collective action. Formed in the midst of the pandemic, the Union of Musicians & Allied Workers is a globally-minded trade union fighting to improve the conditions of independent artists to transfer power away from the few wealthy companies that dictate our industry. Some of their recent work includes the Justice At Spotify campaign, which advocates for drastic changes to the streaming giant's business model.

"Just like any other industry, the only way you have power as a worker is when you unite with lots of other workers to push for change," says co-founder Joey DeFrancesco. With regards to what a recession could mean for artists, DeFrancesco is quick to point out that things are already unsustainable for a high proportion of musicians. "It's difficult to imagine how it could become any harder," she admits. "It's really bad out here, and the only way we're going to get more money into the pockets of music workers is through organising. There's only so much penny-pinching we can do as individuals."

Club staff: Band together

When the conversation turns to how the scene can progress, the experiences of frontline club workers—such as bar staff, cloakroom assistants and lighting technicians—are often overlooked entirely. Faced with low wages, zero-hour contracts and unscrupulous working conditions, they also have the most to lose from an economic crisis. This creates a level of vulnerability that makes joining a trade union essential, according to Bryan Simpson, an industrial organiser with the UK's largest hospitality sector union Unite. "Precarious contracts and poverty pay are unacceptable and workers have had enough," says Simpson, citing an 11.4 percent increase in membership since the start of the pandemic as evidence of this shift.

He points to the recent example of Glasgow bar and club space Broadcast as an illustration of how unionisation can benefit club workers. When a group of staff members made a formal complaint in July, highlighting a wide range of issues ranging from health and safety concerns to failure to provide sick pay, the owners reacted with hostility, immediately removing all complainants from the rotation. After more than three quarters of the workforce joined Unite in solidarity with their affronted colleagues, the owners U-turned, agreeing to thousands of pounds of essential maintenance as well as improved and reinstated contracts for those who had their hours slashed.

"What our members at Broadcast have shown is that when bar and club workers come together and demand better, they win," says Simpson, who helped spearhead the dispute. "Workers are the lifeblood of the live events sector, and it's about time employers appreciate that and improve conditions accordingly."

Punters: Use it or lose it

Unsurprisingly, clubbers are far from immune to the economic concerns affecting other sectors of the scene. A recent poll from dance music platform Keep Hush found that Gen Z respondents were 25 percent less interested in going out post-pandemic, with clubbing being less financially viable cited as a primary reason for this.

It's difficult to frame declining attendances as anything other than detrimental to the scene, but for online collective SODAA, this presents a perfect opportunity to try and fix a broken system. Standing for Self-Organised Decentralised Accessible Arts, SODAA advocates a decentralised governance model for nightclubs, where decisions are made collectively and artists, club staff, promoters and punters all have an equal say.

"Most venues operate in a hierarchical way which excludes the majority of the workforce from benefiting from their labour and participating in decisions that affect them," the group explains. "A decentralised system aims to regulate crucial aspects of the economy of a community in a way that is non-hierarchical, plural and cooperational."

In the context of the current economic downturn, collective ownership has the potential to provide a far more even distribution of profits—a shift that SODAA insist can benefit the whole clubbing ecosystem. "If those who create cultural value were given an adequate cut, nightlife would be much more sustainable," they continue. "But a lot of the money generated goes into the pockets of landlords, gatekeepers, middlemen, superstar DJs, alcohol distributors and so on."

While SODAA raise a number of crucial points regarding dance music's long-term sustainability, Clara Cullen has a far simpler suggestion for how punters can help in the short-term. "My advice for music fans is to support your local grassroots venue by going to a midweek gig or taking a chance on a new act," she urges. "In essence, use it or lose it."